"It's not the Kennedy seat. It's the people's seat."
01/12/10
Scott Brown is the GOP candidate for the Senate seat in Massachusetts once held by the late Ted Kennedy. And he just delivered the rhetorical equivalent of a hay-maker to his opponent, Democrat Martha Coakley:
Yeah... that's the good stuff.
The adjectives you'd normally associate with a Republican candidate for state wide office in Massachusetts are "futile" or "doomed" or "sacrificial lamb". Yet, thanks to the national political fervor, Brown is running surprisingly well.
Just one week ago, Rasmussen Reports released a poll that put this special election at a surprisingly narrow 9-point margin, 50%-41% with 7% undecided.
Also, not as surprisingly, the issue of health care reform is dominating the landscape:
The health care issue is expected to play a big role in the debate and Massachusetts voters hold modestly favorable attitudes about the proposed legislation. In the Bay State, 53% favor the plan working its way through Congress and 45% oppose it.
Health care as the dominating issue on people's minds is nothing shocking. But what that portends could produce a shocking result. This is, after all, a special election. Voter turnout is usually exceptionally low for these kinds of elections, meaning that those who are the most passionate and enthusiastic are the ones most likely to show on election day. Rasmussen continues:
However, as is the case nationally, those who feel strongly about the bill are more likely to be opposed. The overall figures include 36% who Strongly Oppose the plan while 27% Strongly Favor it. ...
Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. In Massachusetts, however, Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans and it is very difficult for the GOP to compete except in special circumstances. Eight percent (8%) of Democrats remain undecided while just 3% of Republicans are in that category. ...
Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat.
Fast forward to now. Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democrat polling firm, has some even more shocking numbers:
The race to replace Ted Kennedy in the US Senate is looking like a toss up, with Republican Scott Brown up 48-47 on Martha Coakley.
Take just a minute to soak that it. A Republican ... running even ... up a point, even ... in a state-wide election ... in Massachusetts.
PPP goes on:
Brown leads 63-31 with independents and is winning 17% of the Democratic vote while Coakley receives only 6% support from GOP voters.
Again, the name of the game is enthusiasm. Those opposing the Democrat's health care plan are tending to be the most enthusiastic and the most likely to show up on Election Day. More from PPP:
Those folks planning to vote in the special election are actually opposed to Obama’s health care plan by a 47/41 margin and only narrowly express approval of the President’s overall job performance 44/43.
The Boston Globe has a poll out that covers virtually the same period of time as the PPP poll but shows Coakley with a 15 point lead over Brown. The questions thus becomes which of these two polls is the outlier, which is completely out of step. The political mood and the trend lines would seem to suggest it's much more likely that the race is still close. It would be unexpected for th race to have narrowed as much as it has only to spike back up to a 15 point lead for the Democrat. A Rasmussen poll released today showing Coakley with a 2 point lead seems to confirm the Globe poll as the outlier.
Could it actually happen that the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy could be won by a Republican voraciously campaigning on the pledge to be the 41st vote — the 41st vote that would end the Democrats super majority, taking away from them the ability to pass the health care bill on which so many have been shamelessly campaigning for as a memorial to Kennedy?
Shockingly, it looks like the answer is, Yes. It could happen. We'll know one week from today.